Syllabus

The PWTP Betting Syllabus is the operating manual for how we think about sports betting.

It explains the principles behind SideLine, the way we approach value and variance, and how to use picks, projections, Patreon, and Discord without turning betting into chaos.

This is not a list of locks. It is a class in decision-making disguised as sports.

I. Who We Are

A. What Picks with the Professor Is
B. What SideLine Is
C. What We Are Trying to Do Here
D. What We Are Not Trying to Do
E. Why Process Beats Hype
F. Why Betting Is a Decision-Making Class Disguised as Sports
G. Why We Keep Showing Up
H. Why Nobody Wins Every Day
I. Why the Work Matters
J. Why the Goal Is Repeatable Decision-Making
K. What It Means to Bet with the Professor

II. Philosophy

A. We Are Not Selling Locks
B. We Bet Prices, Not Teams
C. Long-Term Edge Beats Single-Game Certainty
D. Good Bets Lose and Bad Bets Win
E. Variance Is Not an Excuse; It Is the Environment
F. The Goal Is Repeatable Decision Quality
G. You Can Eat Your Betting Money, but Please Do Not Eat Your Betting Money

III. Betting 101

A. What a Bet Actually Is
B. How Odds Work
C. Implied Probability
D. Favorites, Underdogs, Plus-Money, and Minus-Money
E. Moneylines
F. Spreads, Run Lines, and Puck Lines
G. Totals
H. Pushes, Half-Points, and Why Numbers Matter
I. Why "I Think They Win" Is Not Enough
J. Bankroll Basics
K. Unit Sizing
L. Why Betting Money Must Be Separate from Life Money

IV. Betting Better

A. Expected Value
B. Price Shopping
C. Line Movement
D. Closing Line Value
E. Market Timing
F. Stale Lines
G. Correlation
H. Parlays and Why Sportsbooks Love Them
I. When Multiple Bets Are Really One Bet
J. Short Slates and Scarcity Pressure
K. Chasing, Pressing, and Emotional Betting
L. How to Use Model Picks Without Turning Your Brain Off
M. How to Track Results Without Losing Your Mind 

V. Advanced Betting

A. Market Efficiency
B. Model Edge Versus Market Price
C. True Probability Versus Implied Probability
D. When a Better Team Is a Bad Bet
E. Why Plus-Money Can Be Beautiful
F. Why Favorites Can Still Have Value
G. Hold, Vig, and the Sportsbook Tax
H. Synthetic Markets
I. Derivative Markets: Tool or Trap?
J. When Not Betting Is the Sharpest Position
K. How to Survive Being Right Too Early

VI. SideLine

A. What SideLine Measures
B. What the Ratings Mean
C. What Projections Mean
D. How A/B/C Grades Work
E. What Model Edge Means
F. How to Use the Screenshot
G. How to Use the Downloadable File
H. How to Use the Notes Section
I. How Not to Overread One Column
J. How to Combine SideLine with Your Own Judgment 

VII. MLB

A. Moneylines
B. Run Lines
C. The -1 Strategy
D. First Five Versus Full Game
E. Starting Pitchers
F. Bullpens
G. Offense Grades
H. Weather, Wind, Roofs, and Park Factors
I. Totals and Projected Runs
J. Why Baseball Variance Is Brutal
K. Why Underdogs Matter in MLB
L. Why One Game Does Not Prove Anything
M. How to Approach Short MLB Slates
N. How to Use SideLine During Baseball Season

VIII. CFB

A. Spreads
B. Totals
C. Pace and Explosiveness
D. Matchups
E. Injuries, Depth, and Information Gaps
F. Market Timing in College Football
G. Why Numbers Move Early
H. Why Saturday Chaos Is Real
I. How to Think About Favorites and Underdogs
J. How to Use SideLine for College Football 

IX. CBB

College basketball is a long time away and also is stupid. (If you don't know, that's a long running joke with Our Friend Jake who is as diehard of a CBB junkie as you can find.)

X. Betting "Rules"

A. Bet Small Enough to Survive Being Wrong
B. Do Not Chase
C. Do Not Press Because You Feel Good
D. Do Not Press Because You Feel Bad
E. Do Not Turn Short Slates into Must-Bet Slates
F. Respect Correlation
G. Track Honestly
H. Shop Prices
I. Ask Better Questions
J. Protect the Bankroll
K. Protect the Person Placing the Bets

XI. Patreon

A. What the Free Tier Is For
B. What Student Section Is For
C. What Honor Roll Is For
D. How to Use Daily SideLine Posts
E. How to Use Discord Well
F. How to Ask Useful Questions
G. How Community Picks Fit In
H. How to Disagree Productively
I. How Not to Turn Discord into a Tilt Machine
J. Where to Find Files, Notes, Picks, and Shows