Looking for the Play of the Day?
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Free Plays of the Day: 68-44-2 (+18.42 units, 13.4% ROI)
But don't despair! Introducing the Parlay of the Day
Each day I'll identify one game where I think there's a mathematical edge in parlaying the side and total together because one play is correlated with the other (i.e. if one thing hits, the other is now more likely). Without getting into the mathematical weeds, the idea is that books treat these events as independent when calculating the payouts by multiplying the decimal odds. However, if we can correctly identify a game where the outcomes are dependent in a positive association, the probability of winning actually exceeds the implied probability from the book. Of course, most books that offer same game parlays increase the juice on each play to counteract this; however, the mathematical boost we gain that comes from dependent probabilities should be enough to counteract that and put us back to "strong plays should equal profits in the long run". (Side note: many parlays created in the same game parlay fashion are going to be negative expected value, so we should be selective with what we like and still aim to be price sensitive.)
Free Parlays of the Day: 13-16-0 (-0.9 units, -3.2% ROI)
Two that I really like, so let's try them both and splitting makes us money! The former bombed yesterday, but it's a new day with new starting pitchers!
10/3/22 6pm ET: Guardians/Under 7.5 (+150 on DraftKings) Watch the full breakdown of this game here (starts at the 3 minute mark)
10/3/22 9:30pm ET: Angels/Under 9.5 (+120 on DraftKings) Watch the full breakdown of this game here (starts at the 33 minute mark)